Halifax Index 2022
Rural
You are viewing the 2022 Halifax Index.
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INFLATION TOP OF MIND IN RURAL AND URBAN HALIFAX
With one of the largest proportions of rural residents among Canadian CMAs and the largest rural population across all counties in Nova Scotia, Rural Halifax’s economy is important to the overall growth of the municipality. The 2022 City Matters Survey found that more than 80% of rural residents found general goods and services difficult to afford and close to 60% singled out affordability/cost of living as the most important issue facing the city.
Additionally, 41.3% of rural residents considered their home very difficult to afford, as average home prices in 2021 grew 28.6% across rural regions.
While the service sector is dominant in both Rural and Urban Halifax, goods-producing industries like construction, manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are of particular importance in the rural regions of the municipality.
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Halifax Index 2022
Rural Living
Questions in the City Matters Survey about affordability and other important issues provide insights into differences in perceptions and priorities between rural and urban residents. This is especially important for Halifax given the large share of the municipality that is rural in nature.
In the three areas of Halifax we have defined as Inner Rural,1Eastern Rural,2and Western Rural,3there were 80,292 people according to the 2021 Census, or 18.2% of the total population of the municipality. The rural population grew by 4.4% between 2016 and 2021, adding 3,409 new residents.
General affordability has become a concern for most residents in 2021 with inflation hitting its highest level since 1991. In the 2022 survey, 80.5% of rural residents found goods and services difficult to afford, and 25.0% stated they were “very difficult to afford,” compared to 6.7% and 14.4% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Of particular concern: 0.0% of rural residents found goods and services to be “very easy to afford.”
In all, 59.3% of rural residents (and 56.6% of urban residents) considered affordability/cost of living to be the most important issue facing the city. The percentage of people who considered the handling of the COVID pandemic to be an important issue for the city decreased the most, with the share of rural residents falling from 16.0% to 2.8% and urban residents’ share falling from 12.0% to 5.0%. Lowering taxes as well as economic growth were also considered important issues for Halifax by most residents.
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Regions
- Halifax has the largest rural population of all counties in Nova Scotia.
- Total land area of the municipality covers 5,476 square kilometres. The Census Metropolitan Area of Halifax, which includes East Hants, is 7,276 square kilometres.
- Aggregations of census tracts are used to define the regions within the map.
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Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada (Various)
Population in Rural Halifax
- The Inner Rural area of Halifax saw population growth of 3.3% (+1,060 people) between 2016 and 2021, reaching a total of 33,545 people.
- Western Rural Halifax saw growth of 6.0% (+1,517 people), the highest growth rate among the three rural areas, reaching a population of 26,726 people in 2021.
- Population grew by 4.3% (+832 people) in Eastern Rural Halifax to a total of 20,021.
- All three rural areas had growth rates lower than the overall growth rate for the municipality as a whole (9.1%).
DOWNLOAD THE DATA: POPULATION.XLSX -
OPINIONS ON AFFORDABILITY OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Share of Respondents, Rural and Urban Halifax, 2020 to 2022
2020
2021
2022
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Very easy to afford
2.6%
3.0%
3.0%
5.8%
0.0%
8.7%
Somewhat easy to afford
57.4%
60.0%
38.3%
42.3%
19.5%
19.7%
Somewhat difficult to afford
33.2%
30.7%
44.3%
39.4%
55.5%
45.5%
Very difficult to afford
6.7%
6.3%
14.4%
12.5%
25.0%
26.1%
Source: MQO Research, City Matters Survey (Various)
Affordability
- The share of respondents who reported difficulty with the general affordability of goods and services in Halifax has risen significantly since the pandemic started.
- 80.5% of rural respondents stated that goods and services were difficult to afford, a 21.8 percentage point increase since 2021 and up 40.6 percentage points since 2020. The share of rural respondents who said that goods and services were “very difficult to afford” in 2022 was 25.0% compared to 6.7% in 2020.
- There were no rural respondents who thought goods and services were “very easy to afford” in 2022, whereas 19.5% responded “somewhat easy to afford.”
- 71.6% of urban residents said goods and services are difficult to afford in Halifax, a sharp increase from 37.0% in 2020. There was also a flip between 2020 and 2022 in the urban share who think goods and services are easy to afford, declining from 60.0% in 2020 to 28.4% in 2022.
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MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FACING THE CITY
Share of Respondents, Rural and Urban Halifax, 2021 to 2022
2021
2022
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Affordability/cost of living
31.0%
47.2%
59.3%
56.6%
Lowering taxes
23.3%
10.7%
17.0%
12.5%
Economic growth
5.6%
9.2%
7.2%
11.3%
Improving access to labour/more workers
2.3%
4.2%
4.3%
0.7%
Other (Please specify)
3.5%
1.8%
3.5%
4.6%
Handling the COVID pandemic
16.0%
12.0%
2.8%
5.0%
Less red tape/bureaucracy
3.7%
1.3%
1.8%
2.0%
Don't know
0.8%
2.0%
1.8%
1.4%
Ensuring growth is sustainable
9.3%
9.4%
1.6%
4.8%
Ensuring growth is inclusive
4.5%
2.2%
0.5%
1.1%
Source: MQO Research, City Matters Survey (Various)
Key Issues
- The most important issue facing the city is affordability/cost of living according to 59.3% of rural respondents and 56.6% of urban residents. Affordability/cost of living was the most common answer to this question in 2021 as well, but it has seen increases of more than 20 percentage points for rural respondents and almost 10 percentage points for urban residents.
- The second most common answer, as in 2020, was lowering taxes, chosen by 17.0% of rural residents (down 6.3 percentage points since 2021) and 12.5% of urban residents (up 1.8% since 2021).
- The handling of the COVID pandemic was seen as an important issue only by 2.8% of rural and 5% of urban residents, a decline for both groups since 2021.
Halifax Index 2022
Rural Housing
With record growth in average home prices in 2021, the share of urban respondents in the City Matters Survey 2022 who thought that their homes were difficult to afford increased over 2021 (+6.7 percentage points), but the share of rural residents who felt the same declined (-2.0 percentage points). Interestingly, the share of rural residents who thought their homes were easy to afford also decreased, by 2.3 percentage points.
The average home price in Rural Halifax hit $441,233 in 2021. Inner Rural had the highest price and saw the largest growth over 2020, followed by Western Rural, then Eastern Rural. The Eastern Rural region, which had the lowest average price ($427,539), also had the lowest sales-to-new listings4ratio (86.4) and the highest months of inventory5(1.9).
All other regions had a sales-to-new listings ratio above 90, indicating a very strong seller’s market, with the highest ratio in Western Rural at 97.5. Moreover, months of inventory were close to 1 in every region other than Eastern Rural, indicating that if new listings do not come on the market, housing inventory will disappear in one month.
Inner Rural Halifax was one of two Halifax regions, along with Sackville, to have a higher growth in the number of dwellings than growth in population.
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RESIDENTS’ OPINIONS OF HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Share of Respondents, Rural and Urban Halifax, 2020 to 2022
2020
2021
2022
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Very easy to afford
11.6%
8.5% 18.3%
10.5%
11.0% 13.9%
Somewhat easy to afford
50.1%
49.2% 38.5%
42.0%
43.4% 33.5%
Somewhat difficult to afford
30.2%
29.4% 32.7%
31.6%
31.1% 33.7%
Very difficult to afford
4.2%
9.7% 10.5%
13.2%
10.2% 17.9%
DK/NA
3.9%
3.1% 0.0%
2.6%
4.3% 1.1%
Question: “Would you consider your current housing to be…?”
Source: MQO Research, City Matters Survey (Various)
Affordability
- 10.2% of rural and 17.9% of urban respondents reported that their housing was very difficult to afford, while a further 31.1% and 33.7% believed that it was somewhat difficult to afford.
- While the share of residents who think their housing is difficult to afford increased for urban residents (+6.7 percentage points) between 2021 and 2022, the share of rural residents who felt this way declined (-2.0 percentage points).
- The share of rural respondents who believed in 2022 that their housing is easy to afford was up slightly from 2021, but down 7.3 percentage points from 2020.
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Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada (Various)
Growth in Private Dwellings and Population
- Between 2016 and 2021, the Eastern Rural area of Halifax saw a 2.9% decline in the number of private dwellings and a 4.3% increase in population.
- Western Rural dwelling counts grew by 4.6% since 2016, 1.4 percentage points lower than the growth in the population of the area.
- The only regions of Halifax where growth in dwellings surpassed growth in population between the 2 census years were Sackville and Inner Rural.
DOWNLOAD THE DATA: GROWTH.XLSX -
AVERAGE HOME SALE PRICE
Current Dollars, Regions within Halifax, 2018 to 2021
Year
Overall Average
Rural Areas
Urban Area
Rural Total
Inner Rural
Eastern Rural
Western Rural
2018
$302,274
$275,580
$276,129
$272,219
$277,089
$315,882
2019
$321,910
$286,414
$289,137
$296,159
$276,288
$333,004
2020
$369,435
$342,988
$340,984
$344,535
$344,627
$384,178
2021 $466,575 $441,233 $446,839 $427,539 $442,888 $484,857
Includes both new and resale homes.
Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS, Halifax-Dartmouth Residential Market Activity (Various)Prices
- The Inner Rural region saw the highest 2021 average home price outside Urban Halifax at $446,839, which constitutes annual growth of 31.0%.
- Eastern Rural Halifax had the lowest 2021 average home price at $427,539, 24.1% over the 2020 and the lowest growth rate across all regions.
- After growing by the most across all regions in 2020, average home prices in Western Rural Halifax grew the second most in 2021 (+28.5%) to $442,888.
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SALES-TO-NEW-LISTINGS RATIO
Sales Divided by New Listings, Regions within Halifax, 2018 to 2021
Year
Halifax Average
Rural Areas
Urban Area
Rural Total
Inner Rural
Eastern Rural
Western Rural
2018
65.0
62.1
63.9
54.4
64.9
70.8
2019
78.6
72.4
79.3
55.9
74.3
83.2
2020
88.8
88.1
90.5
81.5
89.3
89.1
2021 92.8 93.8 94.8 86.4 97.5 90.7 Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS, Halifax-Dartmouth Residential Market Activity (Various)
Sales to Listings
- All regions of Halifax, except Eastern Rural, have a sales-to-new listings ratio over 90, indicating a very strong seller’s market.
- Although the increase was not as large as 2020, all regions of Halifax saw growth in the sales-to-new listings ratio, with the largest increase in Western Rural Halifax (+9.2).
- The lowest increase was in Urban Halifax (+3.4) where home sales grew by 7,697 and new listings fell by 253.
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MONTHS OF HOUSING INVENTORY
Inventory Divided by Units Sold, Regions within Halifax, 2018 to 2021
Year
Overall Halifax
Rural Areas
Urban Area
Rural Total
Inner Rural
Eastern Rural
Western Rural
2018
6.0
7.4
6.3
9.8
7.2
4.9
2019
4.1
6.0
4.3
9.2
6.0
3.0
2020
2.2
2.9
2.5
3.9
2.8
1.7
2021 1.2
1.3
1.2
1.9
1.2
1.1
Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS, Halifax-Dartmouth Residential Market Activity (Various)
Inventory
- Months of housing inventory was close to 1 for all regions except Eastern Rural, where it was 1.9, an indication of a severe inventory shortage. If no new listings were added to the market, housing inventory would be exhausted in a month.
- The 2021 figure of 1.3 months of housing inventory in Rural Halifax is less than 20% of what it was in 2018. In urban areas where the figure was 1.1 months, it is just above 20% of the 2018 value.
Halifax Index 2022
Rural Economy
The natural resource, construction, and manufacturing sectors play an especially prominent role in the economy of Rural Halifax. According to Statistics Canada’s Canadian Business Counts December 2021, 73.7% of all Halifax businesses in the three rural regions were in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industries. The largest number of businesses was in the construction industry.
Almost half (48.7%) of all businesses in Halifax employed 1 to 4 employees, and Western Rural had the largest share of these very small businesses at 62.6%. The Inner Rural (59.6%) and Eastern Rural (52.8%) areas also had more very small businesses than the Urban Halifax figure.
Given the connections between demographics and economics, it is useful to consider the age profiles of regions within Halifax. The average age of people in the urban areas was 2.5 years younger than rural areas. Eastern Rural Halifax had the largest share of people aged 65 years and older (23.8%) and the lowest share of those ages 15 - 64 years. The Western Rural area had a similar profile to Urban Halifax, but the Inner Rural area skewed younger, with a larger share of youth and a smaller share of seniors.
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Source: Custom Tabulation based on Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Counts, Tables 33-10-0222-01 & 33-10-0223-01
Businesses by Industry
- The single largest share of businesses in all three rural regions of Halifax were in the construction industry, at 24.3%, 25.0%, and 17.2% for Inner, Western, and Eastern Rural Halifax, respectively. In Urban Halifax, the retail industry had the largest share of businesses at 13.7%.
- The Inner and Western Rural areas were reasonably similar to Urban Halifax in terms of the business shares of service industries like professional services and health care, but these were less important in the Eastern Rural area.
- Eastern Rural had by far the highest share of businesses in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (13.3%) and also had a relatively high share of businesses in transportation and warehousing.
DOWNLOAD THE DATA: BUSINESS-BY-INDUSTRY.XLSX -
Source: Custom Tabulation based on Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Counts, Tables 33-10-0222-01 & 33-10-0223-01
Businesses by Employment Size
- More than half of all businesses in the three rural regions had 1 to 4 employees, above the 46.4% share of businesses in Urban Halifax.
- There were 10 and 11 businesses with 100+ employees in Inner Rural and Eastern Rural Halifax; the Western Rural region had only 3 businesses with that employee range.
DOWNLOAD THE DATA: BUSINESS-BY-EMPLOYEES.XLSX -
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada (2021)
Population Age Distribution
- Eastern Rural had the largest share of people aged 65 years and older at 23.8%. Inner Rural had the lowest share of people in that age group (15.3%).
- The largest share of working-age people (15 - 64 years) were in Urban Halifax (68.8%) followed by Inner Rural (66.8%).
DOWNLOAD THE DATA: AGE-DISTRIBUTION.XLSX -
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada (2021)
Average Age
- At 46.7 years, Eastern Rural had the highest average age across all regions in Halifax, 6.3 years higher than the average age for Halifax and 2.9 years above the rural average.
- The lowest average age in Halifax was seen in the Peninsula at 38.7 years. Dartmouth had the highest average age across areas in Urban Halifax at 43.3 years.
DOWNLOAD THE DATA: AVERAGE-AGE.XLSX