Halifax Index 2023

Affordability

Affordability

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POVERTY RATE STABILIZES AS DEBT LEVELS HOLD STEADY

The poverty rate in Halifax was 8.2% in 2021. The rate held stable, down 0.1 pp since 2020 and down 10.0 pp from 2015. According to the 2021 Census, visible minorities (23.4%) and first generation Canadians (22.0%) had substantially higher poverty rates than a comparable, city-wide average (10.5%).

The 2022 share of Halifax’s total income attributed to the bottom 50% of earners increased to an all-time high of 23.5%. The gap between the average incomes of the top 5% and the bottom 50% of earners has also never been wider at $137,100.

According to the 2023 City Matters Survey, 33.4% of respondents with children said that the child care services available to them were too expensive. This is down dramatically from 60.3% in the 2018 survey. The “Affordability” section of the 2023 Halifax Index, presented by TD, will be updated with child care cost data from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) in the summer of 2023.

Non-mortgage debt levels continued to remain low in 2022. As well, average annual debt levels and delinquency rates were at historic lows in 2022.

Halifax Index 2023
Income & Prices

After growing 2.9% in 2021, Halifax’s household income per capita grew a further 3.7% in 2022, the sixth fastest across benchmark cities. However, the level of household per capita income, $51,424, was the lowest across benchmark cities.

Though income in Halifax grew in 2022, inflation was almost twice as high at 7.3%. With inflation outpacing income growth, purchasing power in Halifax declined 3.6% in 2022. This followed a 1.0% decline in 2021. However, this trend was not exclusive to Halifax. Purchasing power declined in eight of the 10 benchmark cities; only St. John’s (+4.0%) and Calgary (+0.8%) saw increases.

According to the Census of Canada 2021, the median annual income in Halifax in 2020 was $42,000. Across selected groups, those ages 25-64 and Men+1had the highest median incomes in 2020, earning $49,600 and $47,600, respectively. Visible minorities had a median income of $31,000, followed by Black Nova Scotians, at $33,600. The median incomes for Indigenous individuals ($38,800), Women+1($38,000), those ages 65 and older ($37,200), and first generation Canadians2($34,000) were all lower than the $42,000 overall median.

The inflation rate across Nova Scotia was 7.5% in 2022, the highest since 1982 when it hit 9.4%. Gasoline prices increased 30.9% in 2022, which was the most across all product groups in Nova Scotia. Transportation costs, closely associated with gasoline prices, saw the second-highest growth at 12.9%.

Nova Scotia’s mean individual effective tax rate3for individuals was 12.5% in 2020, the fourth highest across provinces. This is the aggregate rate that Nova Scotians paid to the federal and provincial governments as income and payroll taxes.

  • Source: Conference Board of Canada, Major City Insights (Winter 2023)

    Household Income per Capita

    • Halifax’s household income per capita increased 3.7% in 2022, from $49,611 in 2021 to $51,424 in 2022.
    • Halifax ranked sixth out of the 10 benchmark cities in income growth, but had the lowest level of household income per capita.
    • Calgary had the highest household income per capita ($64,289) in 2022 among benchmark cities and St. John’s posted the largest increase over 2021 (9.9%).

  • Source: Conference Board of Canada, Major City Insights (Winter 2023)

    Annual Change in Purchasing Power

    • Halifax had the second-highest inflation rate in 2022 at 7.3% behind only Winnipeg (7.7%).
    • With growth in income per capita (3.7%) unable to keep pace with growth in prices, purchasing power in Halifax declined 3.6%. This was the third-largest decline across benchmark cities.
    • 2022 marks the second consecutive year in which purchasing power fell in Halifax following a 1.0% decline in 2021.
    • St. John’s (4.0%) and Calgary (0.8%) were the only two benchmark cities that saw purchasing power increase.

  • Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada (2021)

    Median Individual Income by Selected Groups

    • According to the Census of Canada 2021, those ages 25-64 and Men+1had the highest median annual income in Halifax, at $49,600 and $47,600, respectively.
    • Visible minorities had the lowest median income ($31,000) across the selected groups, with Black Nova Scotians (a subset of the “Visible Minority” category) having a median income of $33,600 per year. Indigenous individuals had a median income of $38,800 per year. For first generation Canadians, which include those born outside Canada and who are or once were immigrants, the median income was $34,000.
    • Women+1in Halifax had a median income of $38,000, which is $9,600 less than Men+ and $4,000 less than the overall Halifax median.

  • Source: Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, Table 18-10-0005-01

    Consumer Price Index (CPI) by Product

    • The annual inflation rate (as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index) in 2022 was the highest recorded since 1982, hitting 7.3% for Halifax and 7.5% for Nova Scotia overall.
    • Looking at 2022 changes in the CPI by category (where data are available only at the provincial level), gasoline led the way at 30.9% after an even-more eye-popping 39.3% in 2021. Transportation inflation for 2022 came in at 12.9% followed by food at 9.1% and shelter at 8.6%.
    • For six of the nine categories tracked here, the 2022 inflation rates are the highest recorded since 1991.

  • *This rate includes income and payroll taxes paid to both provincial and federal governments.

    Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Administrative Databank, Table 11-10-0054-01

    Individual Mean Effective Tax Rate* by Province

    • The mean effective tax rate for individuals in Nova Scotia has remained essentially unchanged since 2015 at 12.5%. This includes both income and payroll taxes paid provincially and federally.
    • Across all provinces, Nova Scotia has the fourth highest rate, 0.6 percentage points lower than the highest rate in Quebec (13.1%) and 1.9 percentage points above the lowest rate in British Columbia.

Halifax Index 2023
Poverty

Halifax’s poverty rate, as measured by the share of the population with after-tax income below the Market Basket Measure (MBM)4threshold, was 8.2% in 2021. The poverty rate held stable at only 0.1 pp below 2020, but has dropped by 10.0 pp since 2015. Halifax’s poverty rate was the fourth highest across benchmark cities.

The MBM threshold for a family of two adults and two children in Halifax was $52,439 in 2022. This has grown by $8,662 since 2015, $4,176 of which came between 2021 and 2022 alone. MBM thresholds for food and shelter grew by $1,388 and $1,222, respectively, from 2021 to 2022. Other expenses (+$943), transport (+$576), and clothing (+$46) all saw increases in their thresholds in 2022. Clothing was the only component that saw a decline (-$11) in its threshold compared to 2015 levels.

Data on poverty rates for selected groups are available from the 2021 Census. Using this measure, Halifax had an overall poverty rate of 10.5% in 2020. Both Men+5(10.6%) and Women+5(10.4%) had similar rates to the overall figure. Visible minorities had the highest poverty rate across selected groups at 23.4% followed by first generation Canadians6at 22.0% and Black residents at 17.9%. The poverty rate for Indigenous residents was lower at 11.3%. There was a noticeable difference between the poverty rates of those ages 17 and younger (11.5%) and those ages 65 and older (5.9%).

The average income for the top 5% of Halifax earners reached $157,800 in 2020 compared to $20,700 for the bottom 50% of income earners. The $137,100 gap between the two averages is the highest since recordkeeping began in 1982. However, the share of total income attributed to the bottom 50% grew to a record high of 23.5% in 2020 while the share attributed to the top 5% fell to a record low of 14.2%.

According to the 2021 Census, 38.2% of Halifax families earned $100,000 or more in total income. Compared to 2016, this represents growth of 3.3 percentage points. The number of families in Halifax earning less than $60,000 fell by 2,320 while the number of families with income of $60,000 or more increased by 20,570.

  • *The MBM threshold used for this graph has been adjusted to be comparable to individual after-tax income, rather than a family of four. As per Statistics Canada methodology, thresholds are adjusted by the square root of family size.

    Source: Statistics Canada, Custom Request

    Poverty Rates by City

    • Halifax’s poverty rate was 8.2% in 2021. It held stable at only 0.1 pp below the 2020 level. However, the rate is down significantly over time, dropping 10.0 pp since 2015.
    • Among the ten benchmark cities, Halifax’s poverty rate was the fourth highest, 0.8 percentage points above the Canadian average of 7.4%
    • Quebec City had the lowest poverty rate among benchmark cities at 3.9% in 2021, while Toronto had the highest rate at 9.4%.
    • Poverty rates increased in every benchmark city other than Halifax in 2021. The smallest increase was in Montreal (+0.3 pp), while the largest increase was in Winnipeg (+2.7 pp).

  • Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Income Survey, Table 11-10-0066-01

    MBM Thresholds by Component

    • The MBM threshold represents the costs of specified qualities and quantities of food, clothing, footwear, transportation, shelter and other expenses for a reference family of two adults and two children.
    • Between 2015 and 2022, the total MBM threshold grew by $8,662. Almost half of this increase ($4,176) occurred between 2021 and 2022.
    • The MBM threshold for food grew the most in 2022 (+$1,388) followed by shelter (+$1,222). These two components grew the most since 2015 as well with the threshold for food growing by $2,266 and shelter by $2,830.
    • The threshold for other expenses grew by $2,184 since 2015 and was up by $943 between 2021 and 2022 alone.
    • Clothing saw the smallest increase in MBM threshold both from 2021 to 2022 (+$46), and since 2015 (-$11).

  • Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada (2021)

    Poverty Rates by Selected Characteristics

    • Data on poverty rates across population segments are available from the most recent Census. The share of the respective population with income below the MBM threshold was 23.4% for visible minorities in Halifax. First generation Canadians, those born outside Canada and who are or once were immigrants, had the second-highest poverty rate at 22.0%. The poverty rate for Black residents was 17.9% and the rate for Indigenous residents was 11.3%.
    • The poverty rate for those 17 years or younger was 11.5%, 1.0 percentage points higher than the average. The poverty rate for those 65 years or older was 5.9%.
    • Poverty rates for both Men+7(10.6%) and Women+7(10.4%) hovered very close to the overall poverty rate in Halifax, which was 10.5%.

  • *If an individual is a member of a census family that makes less than half of the median after-tax income in their region, that individual is included in the Census Family Low Income Measure After-Tax (CFLIM-AT).

    Source: Statistics Canada, Annual Income Estimates for Census Families and Individuals, Table 11-10-0018-01

    Share within Low-Income Families by Age

    • The share of people 0-17 years old living in low-income families declined 4.9 percentage points between 2019 and 2020, and reached its lowest recorded share (15.9%). Since 2000, this share has declined 8.8 percentage points.
    • Those ages 18-64 years also saw a similar decline: 13.8% of people in this age group lived in low-income families in 2020, 3.6 percentage points lower than in 2019, the lowest on record. The share was 2.4 percentage points lower than in 2000.
    • Conversely, the share of those ages 65 and older living in low-income families was at its highest level (12.0%) in both 2019 and 2020. Since 2000, this share has grown 5.3 percentage points.

  • Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Administrative Databank, Table 11-10-0055-01

    Share and Average Income by Income Group

    • The average income for the top 5% of income earners in Halifax in 2020 was $157,800, more than seven-times larger than the average income of the bottom 50% of earners at $20,700.
    • Average income for the top 5% grew by $5,400 in 2020 while the figure for the bottom 50% was $3,500. Since 1982, when recordkeeping began, both groups have seen their average increase by about 250%.
    • The share of total income accruing to the top 5% in Halifax fell to 14.2%, the lowest level since recordkeeping began. In contrast, the share of total income accruing to the bottom 50% reached its highest level in 2020 at 23.5%.

  • Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada (Various)

    Household Total Income Distribution

    • Between 2015 and 2020 there were significant drops in the number of households in the lowest-income categories.
    • There also were sizable increases in the numbers at the top end of the distribution; the number of households with annual income over $100,000 grew by 20%. About 38% of Halifax families had income of $100,000+ in 2020, an increase of 3.3 percentage points over 2015.

Halifax Index 2023
Child Care

The 2021 federal budget outlined plans for a publicly-funded universal child care system. As part of the Canada-wide Early Learning and Child Care (CWELCC) agreements, all provinces and territories agreed to reduce average monthly child care fees by December 2022. The CWELCC also has a goal to reach an average fee of $10 per day by 2026.Compared to 2019 levels, child care fees in Halifax fell by 43.7%, 45.0%, and 47.1%, for infants, toddlers, and preschoolers, respectively.

Lower fees do not guarantee access, however. According to the CCPA’s survey, fewer than 5% of child care centres in Halifax had capacity to enrol a new child as early as the next week. In fact, 14 out of 30 cities surveyed by the CCPA said they have little to no capacity to accept an additional preschooler in the next week.

Statistics Canada reports provincial-level survey results for families encountering difficulties with child care. In 2022, the most commonly cited difficulty among families using child care was the availability of care in their community (65.9%). Issues related to scheduling and affordability also were mentioned by significant shares of respondents.

Our Halifax-level data on child care come from our annual City Matters Survey, carried out by MQO Research. Almost 40% of respondents strongly agreed when asked if they were using sub-optimal child care arrangements because they had no other option. Almost one-quarter disagreed when asked if they could access child care at a reasonable cost. Opinions on affordability have improved substantially since 2018, likely in response to the significant increases in government funding for child care.

  • Source: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Measuring Matters: Assessing Canada’s Progress Toward
    $10-a-Day Child Care for All (2023)

    Median Child Care Fees for Infants

    • The median child care fee for infants in Halifax, at $529 per month, was the fifth-highest across benchmark cities.
    • Halifax’s figure was $374 per month less than in Toronto where costs were highest, but $337 more than in Montreal and Quebec City.
    • Halifax’s 2023 figure is 43.7% lower than in 2019

  • Source: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Measuring Matters: Assessing Canada’s Progress Toward
    $10-a-Day Child Care for All (2023)

    Median Child Care Fees for Toddlers

    • The median child care fee for toddlers in Halifax, at $456 per month, was the fifth-lowest across benchmark cities.
    • Halifax’s figure was $382 per month less than in Calgary where costs were highest, but $264 more than in Montreal and Quebec City.
    • Halifax’s 2023 figure is 45.0% lower than in 2019.

  • Source: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Measuring Matters: Assessing Canada’s Progress Toward
    $10-a-Day Child Care for All (2023)

    Median Child Care Fees for Preschoolers

    • The median child care fee for preschoolers in Halifax, at $456 per month (identical to the median fee for toddlers), was the fifth-lowest across benchmark cities.
    • The figure was $354 per month less than in Calgary where costs were highest, but $264 more than in Montreal and Quebec City.
    • Halifax’s 2023 figure is 47.1% lower than in 2019.

  • Source: Statistics Canada, Survey on Early Learning and Child Care Arrangements, Table 42-10-0008-01

    Difficulties Finding Child Care Arrangements

    • For Nova Scotians using child care and experiencing difficulties, the most often-cited difficulty, for parents of 65.9% of children, was not being able to find available child care in their community. This share is up 8.9 percentage points since 2019.
    • In 2022, 31.8% of respondents who access child care faced affordability issues, down 6.6 percentage points from 2019. However, the 2022 share was much higher among families who could not access child care at 64.6%.
    • Difficulties arising from scheduling issues fell by 12.8 percentage points to 36.9% between 2019 and 2022.

  • Question: "Using a scale of one to ten, with one (1) meaning 'Completely disagree' and ten (10) meaning 'Completely agree', please indicate your agreement with the following statements about childcare:"

    Source: MQO Research, City Matters Survey (2023)

    Difficulties Finding Child Care Arrangements

    • As a complement to Statistics Canada’s provincial-level data, the Partnership’s City Matters Survey included questions related to child care in Halifax. Answers in the 8-10 range indicate high levels of agreement while answers in the 1-3 range indicate high levels of disagreement.
    • For respondents with children requiring child care services in Halifax, 23.2% disagreed that they can access the child care they need at a cost that is reasonable. 11.3% of respondents cited difficulties finding care close to their home or workplace, and 20.5% had difficulties related to scheduling.
    • 38.6% of respondents said they have sub-optimal child care arrangements because they had no other option.
    • In Halifax, 33.4% of respondents requiring child care said that the options available to them were too expensive. This is a significant improvement from the 60.3% of respondents who said this in 2018 the last time this question was asked.

Halifax Index 2023
Debt

As the pandemic waned and government income-support programs wound down, there were concerns that debt delinquencies would skyrocket in 2022. Fortunately, this was not the case. In fact, Halifax’s average annual non-mortgage debt per consumer in 2022 was $20,936. This was 0.7% lower than the figure in 2021 which, in turn, was 7.7% lower than in 2020. Looking at quarterly data, non-mortgage debt in Halifax hit its lowest level on record in Q1 of 2022 and ended the year at $20,964 per consumer, the second-lowest figure on record.

With record-low levels of non-mortgage debt, delinquency rates were also at historically low rates. In 2022, the annualized delinquency rate for Halifax was 1.0%, the lowest year on record. Nationally it was even lower at 0.9%. In Nova Scotia overall the rate was slightly higher at 1.2%. Quarterly figures started telling a slightly different story in 2022 as non-mortgage delinquency rates increased 0.14 percentage points between Q1 and Q4.

Out of the nine cities that Equifax Canada reports on in their Major City Analysis, Halifax ranks as the city with the fourth-lowest average non-mortgage debt per consumer and delinquency rate.

Consumer insolvencies8totalled 1,295 in 2022. After two years of declines, 2022 saw insolvencies increase by 169 over the 2021 level. This increase was driven by the growth in consumer proposals9with 192 (+29.5%) more than in 2021, taking the total number of proposals to 843. Consumer bankruptcies10continued to decline falling by 23 (-4.8%) from 2021 to 452.

  • Source: Equifax Canada, Canadian Consumer Credit (Various)

    Non-Mortgage Debt per Consumer

    • Halifax’s average non-mortgage debt in Q4 2022 was $20,964 per person. In comparison, Nova Scotia and Canada ended 2022 with average non-mortgage debts of $20,705 and $21,121 per person, respectively.
    • The annual average non-mortgage debt figure of $20,936 per person in 2022 was the lowest since Equifax started publishing Halifax-level data in 2015. Since 2019, this figure has declined $2,670.
    • Across the nine major cities in Equifax’s Major City Analysis, Halifax’s Q4 2022 figure was the fourth lowest and represented an increase of 0.23% since a year ago.

  • Source: Equifax Canada, Canadian Consumer Credit (Various)

    Non-Mortgage Delinquency Rate

    • Halifax’s delinquency rate for non-mortgage debt was 1.1% in Q4 2022. The rates were 1.3% for Nova Scotia and 1.0% for Canada.
    • The annualized non-mortgage delinquency rate in Halifax for 2022 was 1.0%, the lowest annual figure Halifax has seen since recordkeeping began in 2015.
    • Delinquency rates are on the rise, however, having increased 0.17 percentage points between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022.

  • Source: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada, Insolvency Statistics in Canada (Various)

    Consumer Insolvencies by Type

    • Consumer bankruptcies fell to a new low in 2022 at 452, 4.8% lower than in 2021 and 58.3% lower than in the pre-pandemic year 2019.
    • Consumer proposals increased by 29.5% in 2022 and grew to 843. This is still 15.4% below 2019 levels.
    • Total consumer insolvencies increased by 169 (+15.0%) between 2021 and 2022. However, the 1,295 total remains the second lowest insolvency number during the past decade after 2021’s figure of 1,126.

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