COVID-19 Economic Recovery Tracker

Cumulative Change in Employment Since January 2020 by Age Group

Why is this important?

Tracking employment by age group shows us how different cohorts are being affected by COVID. If a specific group is particularly worse off due to COVID, or slow to recover, we should monitor it carefully.

How is Halifax doing?

Despite representing only 12% of the workforce, youth workers (ages 15-24) accounted for 49% of all layoffs during the initial outbreak (January to May 2020). This over-representation of youth is likely due to retail stores and restaurants shutting their doors. Youth employment struggled through the third wave and has only recently recovered. Between August and December 2021, youth employment dropped by 3,400 positions, but has since rebounded 6,000 jobs (as of September 2022). Youth employment is finally above its pre-pandemic level (up 3.2%) and has improved drastically over the past 12 months (up 8.4%).

Employment for each age group has increased above pre-pandemic levels. Those ages 25 to 54 are up 11.0% since January 2020, and are up by 4,100 positions since January 2022. Those approaching retirement (ages 55 to 64) are up 2.9% since the start of the pandemic and have seen 900 more positions filled since January 2022. Employment over the age of 65 is currently up 24.2% since the pandemic began and has increased 2,100 positions since January this year.

What are we watching for?

Despite some initial trouble in 2022, strong employment numbers between April and September have been good for the economy. Total employment has climbed, and all age groups have recovered above their pre-pandemic levels. We will continue keeping a close eye on specific age groups and their differences from the larger picture.

Employment by Sex

Why is this important?

By delineating changes in employment by sex, we can get a sense of how COVID layoffs are affecting men and women differently. Women face higher levels of job insecurity in Canada, are more likely to work part-time jobs than men, are more likely to be employed in lower-wage positions, and remain vastly underrepresented in leadership positions (read more).

How is Halifax doing?

Not only do women remain underrepresented in Halifax’s labour force, COVID-related layoffs and reductions in working hours have impacted more female employees than male employees. Between January and May 2020 (the deepest month of layoffs), male employment dropped by 9,500 workers while female employment dropped by 13,700 workers. By March 2021, employment had recovered for both groups, up 2.0% for males and 3.4% for females above their pre-pandemic levels. Both groups experienced job losses in the most recent wave of COVID-19 cases, seeing a gradual decline in employment in the start of 2022. Between January and September 2022, female employment has increased by 3,300 positions and male employment has increased by 9,300 positions.

What are we watching for?

Women continue to face systemic barriers to labour force participation. Given the disproportionate effects that COVID layoffs have had on female employees, special attention ought to be paid to known barriers such as the availability and cost of child care. These factors may affect the resiliency of female employment in the face of future crises and as we see more COVID cases, these differences may be exacerbated.

Labour Underutilization Rate

Why is this important?

The labour underutilization rate provides a nuanced picture of the labour impacts of the recession. It is a special measure that Statistics Canada is using to track COVID-19’s impact on employment. The rate combines the number of people who are not working but wish they were with the number of people who are working far fewer hours than usual, then compares these underutilized workers to the total number of employed and available workers (read more). This can help us understand how much the recession has affected employment in cases like COVID-19, where the unemployment rate provides an incomplete picture.

How is Halifax doing?

In 2019, before COVID restrictions, Canada’s labour underutilization rate averaged 11.7%. By the depth of the recession in April 2020 over one-third (37.6%) of Canada's labour force was underutilized. This rate decreased slowly and consistently each month until November 2020, where it reached 16.2%. Since then the underutilization rate in Canada has trended downward, despite temporary disruptions as waves of COVID cases have occurred across the country. However, none of these disruptions have approached the magnitude of the initial shock in March 2020. As of December 2021, the underutilization rate sits at 11.7% or roughly one in nine workers.

The situation in Halifax has been similar, reaching an all-time high in April 2020 at 35.4%. Halifax and Nova Scotia didn't see the same peak in late 2020, quickly containing and recovering from a second wave of COVID-19. However, a third wave of cases in May 2021 caused the underutilization rate to spike upwards across the province. The provincial rate increased to 21.9%, while the rate in Halifax increased to 22.7%. The rates have trended downwards since then, currently sitting at 15.1% and 12.5%, respectively.

What are we watching for?

It is likely that we will see underutilization rates rising across the province in early 2022 in tandem with rising case counts. Afterwards, as more and more of the population is vaccinated and gets their boosters, these rates should continue to trend down towards normal. However, this process may take several months to play out as workers return to the workplaces, gain back their usual working hours, or find new employment. As the country continues to face challenges with its public health situation, underutilization will be higher than normal. Overall employment has grown, but the underutilization rate has been above normal, a sign that economic recovery is still a work in progress.

Retail Sales by NAICS Industry

Why is this important?

Retail sales are a useful barometer of economic activity, as they closely track how much consumers are buying overall. Retail sales can show whether consumers are confident enough in the economy to make major purchases and illuminate which kinds of products consumers are choosing to spend more of their money on. Detailed sales categories can show how disruptions may be affecting one industry over another.

How is Halifax doing?

While detailed data are not available for Halifax, we can examine how Nova Scotia’s retail sales are doing to provide insight into Halifax’s economic health. Beginning with an increase in March, month-over-month retail sales have climbed sharply over the past few months. Retail sales in July 2022 are 44.1% higher than they were at the start of the year, and 53.2% above their pre-pandemic level (January 2020).

Currently, all industries are above their January 2020 levels. Since that time, the greatest gains have been in building material and garden equipment (up 122%), general merchandise (up 83%), and sporting goods, hobby shops, and book stores (up 66%). These figures were impacted by a combination of seasonal factors, opening up of COVID restrictions, and rising prices.

While aggregate sales are up 53.2% from January 2020, this number combines the impacts of sales volumes and prices. Consumer prices across Nova Scotia increased 13.1% between January 2020 to July 2022. This suggests that the volume of sales has been moderately lower than the figures suggested above.

What are we watching for?

The large jump in sales activities in recent months has been a welcome sign. However, it is occurring simultaneously with inflation levels not seen since the early 1980s. Importantly, the effects of inflation, COVID-19 case counts, and even seasonal variance are not felt equally across industries. The fast pace of recovery in early 2022 far exceeded expectations and is a positive sign for overall economic progress. However, the prospect of inflation could erode many of the benefits of recovery. It will be important to understand the pace of recovery and how different industries respond to recovery efforts and changing prices.

Consumer Insolvencies by Type

Why is this important?

Consumer insolvencies show how many families have been unable to make payments on their debts. If families can endure a recession by taking on debt, it indicates they have been able to manage the impacts without lasting damage; their short-term costs fit within their long-term ability to pay. Insolvencies occur when the amount of debt they have taken on is overwhelming. Therefore, consumer insolvencies provide insight into how severely the COVID crisis has affected families, as well as if government support programs have been able to mitigate the long-term damage caused by the downturn.

How is Halifax doing?

Consumer insolvencies in Halifax have remained low throughout the pandemic. There were only 349 bankruptcies and insolvency proposals in Q2 2022, well below the average of 508 insolvencies per quarter between 2015 and 2019. While consumer insolvencies are rising, they had been artificially low during the pandemic and are only now headed towards normal.

What are we watching for?

The low number of insolvencies is a good sign and we have not seen a spike we might expect from an economic downturn. It is looking more likely that Halifax will be able to withstand the economic downturn and that the lasting, debt-related harms will be mitigated. However, it is still important to keep track of how quickly insolvencies increase as the economy continues to recover. We expect that insolvencies will inevitably rise and return to normal, but it is unclear how quickly this will happen. When insolvencies eventually rise, it will be important to see whether they trend towards normal or whether they overshoot historic norms, as this may be a sign of economic damages caused by the pandemic.

Business Insolvencies by Type

Why is this important?

Similar to consumer insolvencies, business insolvencies show how many businesses cannot make payments on their debts. If businesses can endure a recession by taking on debt, it indicates they have been able to manage the impacts with minimal lasting damage. When facing insolvency, businesses will often close, leading to layoffs and job losses. Therefore, insolvencies give us an idea of how much long-term damage a recession will cause.

How is Halifax doing?

Business insolvencies in Halifax remained low throughout the pandemic. There were only 3 business insolvencies in Q2 2022, below the average of 8.4 insolvencies per quarter since 2015. This is a good sign, but it is possible that the impacts of COVID on the economy and insolvencies could take a longer time to resolve.

What are we watching for?

The low number of insolvencies throughout the pandemic has been a sign of good economic health. This provides insight into how severely the COVID crisis has affected businesses and whether businesses have been able to access the credit and liquidity support they need to stay in business. Similar to consumer insolvencies, business insolvencies will have to rise eventually. We are continuing to watch these metrics to see if they slowly rise towards a more typical level, or if there are unforeseen economic damages that cause them to overshoot historic norms.