Scotiabank's Rebekah Young on Doom, Worry, and the Economy: A Recap

The Partnership was thrilled to host Rebekah Young, VP & Head of Inclusion and Resilience Economics with Scotiabank Economics, at a breakfast event for its Investors on November 13. Her presentation comprised an outstanding blend of data, insight, and wit.

Drawing on two recent reports she authored, one from July and one from this week, her initial points focused on the contrast between, on the one hand, low levels of consumer confidence and persistent gloom among economic forecasters and commentators, and, on the other hand, some rather positive news in terms of growth in household net worth in Canada, the economic status of younger households, and the not-as-big-as-you-might-have-thought degree of inequality that exists in the country.

Zooming out to the broader macroeconomic context, the incoming change of government in the United States generates profound uncertainty for our economy north of the border and if all the most extreme policy planks – think massive tariff imposition leading to a global trade war – were to be implemented in full, the economic consequences for Canada would be dire.

These looming threats provide all the more reason for us to get our own house in order as best and as quickly as we can. Made-at-home economic improvements can provide at least some buffer for the negative impacts of American trade policy that we cannot directly control.

Despite these bright spots in the data, which may come as a surprise to many, she also recognized that there are clearly segments of Canadian society facing real economic difficulties, exacerbated by factors such as the decline of private pension plans and the inability of many to grasp the first rung of the home ownership ladder.

Among the issues identified as ripe for deeper investigation and improvement are the disconnects across our three orders of government in terms of revenue sources and spending responsibilities, an inefficient and uncompetitive tax regime, anemic private sector investment, and weak and worsening productivity performance.

Precise remedies for these problems were beyond the scope of a thirty-minute talk, but in Rebekah’s July article she states:

“The nation no doubt faces enormous challenges ahead. However, resorting to alarmism in response to its polycrisis is not yielding results. The discourse has shifted toward a divisive and gloomy view of Canada’s outlook and individuals’ sense of well-being. There is risk that near-term pessimism morphs into medium term paralysis. A zero-sum culture hinders anything but minor tweaks at a time when sweeping transformations are necessary—such as overhauls in tax and transfer systems, extensive reforms in health and education, right-sizing governments, or a revitalization of cooperative federalism. As fiscal pressures mount, status quo will likely become even more polarizing."

2025 Productivity Series: And, it is in this spirit that Wendy Luther, our President and CEO, announced the launch next year of a series of collaborative conversations, insights, and collective actions focused on improving productivity to drive our economy. Stay tuned for more information!

Please take the time to read this thought-provoking research from Scotiabank Economics here: https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.insights-views.cdn-household-balance-sheets--november-12--2024-.html

Slides from Rebekah's presentation can be found here.

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