Population of Halifax reaches half a million
Halifax has been rather obsessed with population figures for a while now.
A decade ago, the Ivany report’s warnings of looming demographic decline, and the impacts it would have on our economy, gripped our attention. In response, Halifax’s 2016-21 and 2022-27 economic strategies fixed accelerated population growth as a top-level goal.
Beginning in 2016 we embarked on a run of record-breaking annual population increases until COVID-19 closed our borders for a year. Contrary to fears that no one would be there when the borders reopened, 2022 and 2023 saw increases that were off the charts. (Well, actually we right-clicked on the Y-axis and made an adjustment so that the new data would indeed fit on the chart, but you get the idea.)
More recently, the focus on Halifax’s population has turned to whether we are bringing in too many people, too quickly, given the obvious and serious stresses on our housing market, our medical system, and our transportation networks.
On January 16 we received the latest annual population estimates for Halifax from Statistics Canada. One might call this a Goldilocks and the Three-Handed Economist Bear report.
On the one hand, Halifax's population growth remains strong. We added 11,594 people between July 2023 and July 2024, bringing our population as of July 1, 2024, to 502,753. This is the third-highest annual increase on record. While we have made great strides in addressing our long-term demographic challenges, the problem cannot be called solved. Continued in-migration is necessary to counter the effects of ballooning numbers of retirees.

On the other hand, the rate of increase is down sharply compared to the two previous years, which means a welcome reduction in the pressures on our infrastructure.
On the third hand – yes, we economists now get three hands to opine with … call it inflation … or maybe an arms race – below the headline numbers are some trends worth keeping our eyes on.
Nova Scotia’s birthrate has been slowing and its population aging for some time. In 2012-13, deaths finally outpaced births, which is referred to as negative net natural population growth. With its younger population Halifax had bucked this trend for many years, but now net natural population growth here has turned negative as well. While some of this is simply a function of demographic realities, we also should consider how issues like access to a range of affordable housing options and availability of child care may be influencing decisions about having children.

Until 2021 it had always been the case that each year more people moved into Halifax from elsewhere in Nova Scotia than went the other way. But for the past three years, Halifax has had negative intraprovincial population growth. Noting how the greatest net in-migration has been to areas on Halifax’s periphery like Hants and Colchester Counties, it seems reasonable to speculate that many people working in Halifax may be moving to areas within commuting distance that offer less expensive housing options. Efforts must continue to more quickly get more housing built in Halifax.

Also turning negative for the first time since 2015 is the net migration figure between Halifax and other Canadian provinces and territories. Some of this turn-around may be due to increased activity in the oilpatch drawing Nova Scotians westward. It also may be the case that recent housing affordability and availability concerns have acted as a deterrent, although we are seeing moderating home prices and an increase in the apartment vacancy rate.

Last year Halifax’s population increase was due entirely to international migration. The 12,931 people we welcomed last year represents the second-highest number on record. The number of immigrants has been stable over the past three years, but the number of non-permanent residents, which is mostly composed of temporary foreign workers and international students, dropped by almost 4,500 (-60%). As federal restrictions on the inflow of migrants from outside Canada continue to tighten, Halifax may see further, and perhaps significant, decreases.

Arguably these latest Halifax population figures hit the ‘just-right’ level of continued growth, but at a more manageable level.
As we tackle our growing pains in the areas of housing, health care, and transportation, the bit of shine that Halifax may have lost over the past couple of years will be regained and our various in-migration measures will rebound.
Conversely, though, if we fail to successfully address these problems, we risk returning to the stagnation of the pre-2016 period.
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